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UKZAMBIANS

Analysis of state of nation- Zambia today is at crossroads

The author writes in his own capacity. The views expressed here are not that of UKZAMBIANS.

By George Jere

Are we going on a road map to development and peace or to the hopelessness period of the first and second republic that blighted our lives to 27 years of negative growth?

George Jere

Below are the factors at play in our country that I believe will determine the direction and future of Zambia.

POLITICAL CULTURE
After the demise of dictatorship in our country in 1991 Zambia embraced multi-party democracy.
Unfortunately this noble ideal was first tampered by our diminutive late president Chiluba who wanted to go for a third term.
Since then retrogressive policies such as restricting presidential candidates in political parties in Zambia crept in.
The likes of late president Levy Mwanawasa who preferred to stand alone in party presidential elections. The late even encouraged fellow politicians to kneel before him.
And for President Bwezani Banda he shouldn’t have been asked to wake up at all to come and lead our nation.

Peaceful resiliency by the Zambian people to strive for a better future is what led the Zambian people once more to elect a new party president in the name of Michael Sata.
The emergence of thugs on the political scene in the last 20 years is unfortunate. Recently a thug was even appointed as an advisor in one of the opposition parties. This is disturbing.
The Zambian people deserve better standards from politicians.

All parties in Zambia should have zero tolerance to any form of political violence
We should move forward by introducing a code of conduct for politicians.
Insults, alarmist statements, tearing of speeches etc should be nipped in the bud.

The press in Zambia can also help by exercising self censorship. My appeal, the moment the press stops peddling insults in their papers the culprits will in turn stop competing in this unsavory sport.

Standing regulations for monitoring the conduct of parties should be made stiffer in conformity with democratic ideals of a modern country. An independent body can be formed to work together with the registrar of societies. The conduct of PF in trying to encourage political dialogue should be praised. Opposition parties such as NAREP AND FDD should be commended for their political maturity and hopefully this should be emulated by other parties.

Political parties especially in Africa have a tendency to destabilize a nation. Who would have known that Kenya after so many years of peace would be rocked with violence by unproven allegations of vote rigging? I am of the view that Vote rigging is an impossible feat to achieve especially if one takes into account modern day electoral regulations.

NATIONALISATION OR FREE MARKET POLICIES?

..Our country today is at crossroads as to which roadmap to follow..

Recent nationalisation of ZAMTEL and the cancellation of the railway concession has sent shock waves and rocked investors’ confidence. They are just wondering who is next, a very sad state of affairs indeed.

……state business…

Can the state run a business? The answer is an emphatic NO. A review of their performance in the past is a stark reminder that running a business shouldn’t be in the hands of the state.It is a complete joke. To justify my unsavory comment why it is a joke to run a business entity by government (parastatals): Just take a closer look at the picture I took recently whilst driving from Ndola to Lusaka.

On the picture you can see ZESCO pylons on both sides of the road hardly more than 20 metres from the highway.

It doesn’t take rocket science to predict that this is a disaster in waiting. ANY Highway is a busy road. The probability of a vehicle or worse a bus full with passengers careering of the road and hitting these high tension cables is imminent. Maybe it will require the electrocution of so many people to spur someone in ZESCO to reallocate the ZESCO pylons to more than 2km from the highway.
In fact some four people have already been electrocuted on this road in the recent past.

Unfortunately their station in life (sand dealers) didn’t attract enough public outcry or alarm ZESCO to reevaluate their bizarre decision to place high tension cables so close to the road.

Such poor decision making process in parastatals is endemic. It is a result of the way they are structured right from formation. The first thing a minister will do is to appoint a person he knows, a relative or tribesmen. Then the officers so appointed will in turn resort to the same system right through the organisational chart. End result of this nepotism is wrong personnel occupying positions of authority. The results are there for all to see as reflected by the bizarre decision of placement of ZESCO pylons.

….STATE COMPANIES

When Zambia’s economy was 80 % in state hands, the parastatals used to pay only 20 % of taxes to our treasury. Treasury funds are used for social services and funding of the budget. And the scenario was, it was the 20% private sector that used to pay 80% of monies collected from taxable income. ZIMCO a state holding company never declared a dividend in more than 20 years of it’s existence .Evidence that the Zambian people never benefited from state enterprises.

…THE NEED TO CONTROL…

So why do people today advocate state control? One wonders despite all this compelling evidence that state companies cannot perform.The answer lies in political popularism and vested interests. It is a wicked call by politicians to effect nationalisation policies that has subjected mankind to the worst forms of poverty.

…THE CONSEQUENCES OF NATIONALISATION…

For example, after nationalisation the economy of Zambia shrunk by 50 % in the 27 years former President Dr. Kaunda was in charge. And a grim statistic for Zambia, our copper production in 1968 was 700,000mt. Production sunk to a mere 250,0000mt in 1991 when President Kaunda was kicked out.

In 1964 Zambia was the fourth richest country in Africa. And after the end of Kaunda’s disastrous rule Zambia was ranked the forth poorest country in Africa.

And Just take a look at what our neighbour president Robert Mugabe did to the economy with his nationalistic fervor. Displacing more than 400,000 farm workers in order to give farms to hundreds of politicians and senior army personnel.The confiscation of land can only be described as day light robbery in Zimbabwe. We had no indigenous farmers in Africa before the white man came. Therefore, to claim that indigenous people were displaced is a blue lie ;
Gathers of wood and hunting was our pre-occupation not farming.

….HAPPY WITH INDEPENDENCE?

I will be the first to admit that independence in Zambia in my view has lost essence.To fellow citizens who doubt my statement, I have this to ask on the conduct of our founding fathers in Africa:”Which one is more dehumanizing? Lack of political freedom or poverty?”

…….CHINA. CHANGE OF POLICY…

China a stalwart of state control of companies had to change economic policies 20 years ago from state participation to private sector ,…commonly known as capitalism. Because of this change china has witnessed a massive transformation of the economy to what it is today.

God forbid that in today’s economic environment some leaders are advocating unworkable systems such as nationalisation.Refusing to learn from past mistakes is the greatest betrayal of the masses they lead. Recent objections on state participation in the economy from the Christian council of Zambia (CCZ )are encouraging. Rev Susan Matale is dead right to object going back to the policies of nationalisation of the economy.

…A FEW EXCEPTIONS IN AFRICA-BOTSWANA …..

Smart governments like Botswana stayed away from state control of firms. From a Poor country whose only asset was cattle at the time of independence, Botswana today has the second highest foreign exchange reserves in the whole of Africa second only to south Africa.Successive leaders in Botswana since independence have realized the importance of welcoming private investments because at the end of the day the state collects 35% of corporate tax from every enterprise operating in their country. Money so collected is used to fund social services that transform the lives of its people.

…….MY APPEAL…

My Ernest and sincere appeal to the Patriotic front government, continue with the privatisation policies of MMD. The PF government shouldn’t seek advice from former and current dictators who destroyed the lives of millions of their countrymen through bad economic policies. Full privatisation of the remaining companies such as ZESCO and railways is a must. They are crucial in turning the wheels of commerce into economic development. Current symptoms of power outages and a Nonexistent railway system in Zambia means state participation in this sector has lamentably failed.

Britain in the 80s faced the same problems and the politics of privatising power and railways systems in the country. The problem required a bold step by then prime minister Margaret Thatcher to sell these companies (railway, power) to the private sector. She dismissed idle arguments by former socialists that the industries were “strategic “to the country and shouldn’t be privatised.

“One wonders how strategic the state companies are when their woeful performance negates the very strategic role they are supposed to play.”

Today in UK it is a success story with so many private companies involved in the generation and distribution of power and railway systems.

Learn more the author of this post:

George Jere
George Jere is a correspondent of UK mail magazine on economy and political Affairs. A Matero boys school leaver and a graduate of a diploma in accountancy from Evelyn hone college in the 1980. He worked as a senior in Peat Marwick & Mitchell (KPMG) and was a business consultant to Simba milling for so many years. He left Zambia to UK in 2005 and lives with his wife and two adult sons as the managing Director of nkosimarketing.co.uk and recently incorporated GX Energy (Z), a company promoting renewable energy in Zambia dealing in Solar, Bio-Fuels, Waste and Hydro Energy.
 
Comments

Ba Jere,
No amount of lies can bury the truth. Over 50 years of colonial rule was a great embarrassment to the British colonial office. At Independence there was virtually nothing to speak about in terms of both social and economic development. Read the Dudley Seers Report 1963. KK may have had his own failing but give him the credit for having transformed Zambia into a modern state by the time he left office in 1991. What else of significance is there now apart from what he left behind?
Tiyaonse Kabwe, Stockholm University

This is a poorly researched piece full of falsehoods and made up facts. The Zambian economy did not shrink from 1964 to 1991. It grew. What it did not keep up with was population growth. Secondly the number of people employed grew to 1991 to 543,300 and not dropped by half as Mr. Jere alleged. The number of projects completed in the 27 years to 1991 is in the hundreds. For instance the whole of Kafue Estates, Kabwata Estates, the whole Zambia Sugar Estate, Kafue Gorge and Kariba North Bank Power Stations, TAZARA, TAZAMA, Indeni, Tailings Leach Plant I,II and III (over US$500 million investment), Kasaba Bay Tourism project which included the building of an airport, lodges etc. The creation of a whole aviation industry which by 1990 employed 3,000 people, the creation of a cashew nut industry in Western Province, A fertiliser plant in Kafue (US$200 million), A complete mine and town at Maamba (US$70 million), creation of a nationwide communications network that connected 60 districts(ZAMTEL), a national highway network conencting all provincial centers to Lusaka, the building of trades training institutes, nursing schools and general hospital in every provincial capital, the list is endless. KK inherited 220 million pounds not 6 billion pounds in 1964. I am challenging Mr. George Jere to cite all his data sources and provide links to them. Otherwise his so called analysis belongs in the dustbin.

Thanks readers for your interesting observations.I acknowledge with thanks the compliments received so far.let me now interact with the opposing views so far expressed.
In summary most views dwelt on the success of the Kaunda regime and I wouldn’t blame those people  because I heard (,to my disbelief ) our own mercurial KK utter the claims of success a few years ago…  Unfortunately KKs claims are  supported by a few facts:

…And i present more grim stats …Please note…”FIGURES DON’T LIE”

KK was left with £6billion in reserves at the time of independence and he built three notable institutions: one  university(unza),a teaching hospital(uth) and Lusaka international airport .A sum total of less than £300m expended.And all developments were based  in Lusaka.

          And       ….During the 27years of  KKs rule..

.Education./health centre.
  No single school Or health centre was built in Zambia during his rule.
In early 80s  the world bank (,disregarding world wide financial sanctions against Zambia,)had to step in to alleviate an impending catastrophe .Then a number of institutions were built in education and health centres(clinic) in Zambia.

Sad to note that money borrowed to build these institutions remained unpaid up to 1991 the year he was kicked out;
“In 1991 Zambia had the distinct record in the whole world of having the highest debt per capita.”

     Youth Unemployment
At grade seven level of education out of an average population of 130,000 primary school leavers only 30,000 pupils used to proceed to secondary schools form one or grade 8. Meaning a 100,000 pupils thrown into the streets every year in zambia.And for 27years this amounted to an incredible cumulative figure of  2.7million unfortunate youths roaming our streets…….A perfect time bomb..for Zambia.

Most towns outside lusaka and roads in Zambia remained the same (,built by our colonial masters ) in that dark period of 27years of KKs rule ..and there is more to say…..

“Shani bola yayanguka  bane….bushe nde teya  neka.?..ndefwaya  izande …  peleni AMA figures bane !”

Mr. Jere I think it is better you stick to fields you knwo something about and stop peddling half truths and outright lies. Kaunda’s notable projects

1. Kariba North Bank Power Project – 715MW Power Station
2. Kafue Gorge Power Project – 900MW Power Station
3. Nitrogen Chemicals – Integrated Fertiliser Plant
4. Nchanga Tailings Leach Plant Project -
5. Chambishi Cobalt Plant
6. Zambiua Sugar Kafue Polder Scheme
7. TAZARA Railway
8, TAZAMA Pipeline
9. Tarred highways connecting Chipata, Kasama, Solwezi, Mongu to Highway
10. UTH
11. 120 Secondary Schools the World Bank Project was a loan but the project was Zambian and it was in the 1970s
12. Zambia Railways Workshops in Kabwe
13. Luano ZCCM Back Up Power Project
14. Construction of a Trades Training Institute in Every Provincial Capital plus a Teachers Training College
15. Creation of a local Aviation Industry from Scratch there were no Zambian pilots, engineers, technicians etc until KK creeated Zambia Airways in 1967
16. TAZAMA Pipeline
17. INDENI Oil Refinery
18. Kabwe industrial Fabrics, Mulungushi Textiles
19. Construction of the WHOLE KAFUE Town. Kafue was built by KK. Kafue Estates was built between 1970 and 1986.
20. Maamba Collieries was creaetd by KK in 1968 to 1972.
21. In 1991 Copper Production was 400,000 tonnes and 250,000 tonnes. This 250,000 tonnes was the last output before privatisation by Chiluba in 2001.(Source World Bank)
22. In the period 1964 to 1975 Zambia’s economy grew at an average of 7% (Source World Bank).
23. The whole of Cairo Road the tallest building before Independence was Chester House every single modern building including the ZANACO headquarters was started in KK’s time.

Thanks Bima for the supposed long list of successes.
Reading within the lines at least you acknowledged the world bank intervention in building schools and clinic .
And at the end of the day in 1991 the amount remained outstanding.THEN WHO DID THE BUILDING?
Now let’s look at the big picture..the overall performance of the economy:
According to bank of Zambia year end financial reports the economy of Zambia GNP declined on average by 2% from 1968 to 1991. A cumulative drop of more than 55% of the economy as a whole during the 27years of KKs rule.
Proof of this drop is reflected by the formal employment; in 1968 stood at 500,000 and in 1991 a mere 250,000 see ministry of labour reports.
Copper production also dropped by more than 55% during the period…can I say more…

Year GDP Growth Rate
1961 1.36
1962 (2.49)
1963 3.27
1964 12.21
1965 16.65
1966 (5.57)
1967 7.92
1968 1.25
1969 (0.44)
1970 4.80
1971 (0.09)
1972 9.21
1973 (0.96)
1974 6.43
1975 (2.27)
1976 6.22
1977 (4.56)
1978 0.55
1979 (3.02)
1980 3.04
1981 6.17
1982 (2.81)
1983 (1.97)
1984 (0.34)
1985 1.62
1986 0.72
1987 2.68
1988 6.28
1989 (1.02)
1990 (0.48)
1991 (0.04)
1992 (1.73)
1993 6.80
1994 (8.63)
1995 (2.82)
1996 6.95
1997 3.30
1998 (1.86)
1999 2.22
2000 3.58
2001 4.90
2002 3.30
2003 5.10
2004 5.38
2005 5.34
2006 6.23
2007 6.19
2008 5.68
2009 6.40
2010 7.61

Mr. Jere you are telling lies again. The cumulative GDP Growth from 1968 to 1991 is 30.97% or an average of 1.36% a year. Sources World Bank. Bank of Zambia

I have studied liberal arts which Sampizi is boasting about. The article is well researched and has depth. Keep it up ba Jere

Forgive the writer despite being a good wordsmith, he has chosen a subject that is bigger than his spectacles. Guy outside the liberal arts have serious problems tackling issues of such magnitude. The author is a Matero boys school leaver and a graduate of a diploma in accountancy from Evelyn hone college. He should handle minor subjects in future instead of dismissing the UNIP days as contributing to ‘negative growth.’

Londolola chumfwike

‘blighted our lives for 27 years of negative growth.’ What a far-fetched assertion. Kaunda built schools which benefitted the likes of the writer. Kaunda built hospitals and limited brain drain of doctors unlike now. Kaunda built industries like Livingston Motor Assemblies, Rover Zambia etc I don’t think we can call that ‘negative growth’ Come on, we should not shy away from thinking by promoting ‘negative intellectual growth’ like the one I am seeing here.

Yeah this is a good article though the author should not be alarmist. Zambia is not at crossroads or did Jere just want to use the word for the sake of being intellectual.

What is the matter with Zambians? This is a well written piece. The author has backed up his argument with facts. I don’t see how the issue of bola ukwanguka ngatauleteya.

Zambian intellectual guru

Ba Jere bola ilawama ngoletamba, nomba ngabakwingishamo bwafya. Iyi analysis ni theory chabe. Epo mpelele

Mr. Sata is appointing board members of Zesco, ZCCM, etc you are the people who need to sit there. Another great article.

Good write up!

There is a very strong case for the privatization of parastals – ZESCO in particular and also dividing it into chucks – distribution & generations…

 
Comments